tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8767965973861050539.post8383587718640427566..comments2023-05-01T06:05:27.013-04:00Comments on Red Wings Corner: The Red Wings' two-man disadvantageChuck Pleinesshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05687215987088549996noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8767965973861050539.post-71447157294980177132008-11-27T13:47:00.000-05:002008-11-27T13:47:00.000-05:00First time ever that anyone has asked these questi...First time ever that anyone has asked these questions about 5-on-3. It happens so infrequently that I write it off as pure luck and not due to inherent PK skills - a bad PK team would get scored on before it had the chance to take another penalty.<BR/><BR/>Anyways, now that I think about it, 5-on-3s could do with some analysis. I'm on the case...Hawerchukhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05789559886083456704noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8767965973861050539.post-50171193840078960702008-11-21T17:31:00.000-05:002008-11-21T17:31:00.000-05:00Lllja sucks, he should be deported.Lllja sucks, he should be deported.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8767965973861050539.post-90675751842118655162008-11-20T12:40:00.000-05:002008-11-20T12:40:00.000-05:00Too bad the NHL doesn't make those numbers availab...Too bad the NHL doesn't make those numbers available. It is obvious that there have been more 5 on 3's this year, and it also seems to me (observation, not necessarily fact) that a team that is multiple goals down, or not playing well, seem to get them. Could this be a Gary Bettman conspiracy to keep close games and more scoring?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8767965973861050539.post-22142404338981877912008-11-19T08:50:00.000-05:002008-11-19T08:50:00.000-05:00James ... very well thought out statistical analys...James ... very well thought out statistical analysis. I love it. I agree with you about length of penalty-kill. And it's impossible to find numbers of 5-on-3s. The NHL really should make those numbers available. I don't think the average time on each kill would be perfect although I too want that number. You could have a 51 second PK and 9 1-second PKs and that would equal, in terms of average, 10 10-second PKs. But the opportunity to score would be different even though the averages would be the exact same. But ... I do think that would be better than what we have.Chuck Pleinesshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05687215987088549996noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8767965973861050539.post-42139476174707853812008-11-19T08:35:00.000-05:002008-11-19T08:35:00.000-05:00It seems to me that there are problems with prorat...It seems to me that there are problems with prorating 5-on-3 and 3-on-5 ice time out to 60 minutes. As is shown, a team doesn't even get 60 minutes worth of either situation in an entire season, which often inflates numbers to statistically pointless values. The sample size is simply too small to make any statistically significant findings using this prorating formula for any of the 2-man-advantage situations' effectiveness.<BR/><BR/>Another problem is that the number of 2-man scenarios isn't provided as a guide here (or at behindthenet.ca, at least I couldn't find it in my search). We all know that killing a 1-minute 2 man penalty is MUCH harder than killing 6 individual 10-second 2 man penalties (or even 10 6-second ones). A team could easily kill those 6 10-second 3-on-5 situations, but would be unlikely to kill the entire 1-minute situation, despite the fact that this would be the same amount of "time" spent on a 3-on-5 kill (one whole minute). If they let in 1 goal for that single 1-minute kill, that would be prorated to 60 GA/60 when killing a 2-man advantage, yet if they were to kill all 6 of the 10-second 2-man advantages (completely ignoring whether or not they gave up a goal after they went back to a single penalty to kill), their stat here would be 0 GA/60. Comparing those two numbers, you'd think that you would have completely different teams with different abilities to kill a 2-man advantage, when in reality all you had was one team let in one goal in a very long kill, and the other team do a good job of killing 6 shorter situations. The same issue applies to the opposite situations, when the team is attempting to score in a 5-on-3.<BR/><BR/>I would suggest that, when looking at these stats, we make sure to include the number of 2-man advantages (either way) to get a sense of how long each situation, on average, has been. Unfortunately, I have no idea where to find that statistic, as it's not on behindthenet.ca or even the NHL's site. I would guess that the average length for the Wings' 3-on-5 kill this year is MUCH larger than last year's, meaning that the amount of goals they've let in is nowhere near as bad as it sounds. However it DOES emphasize the necessity for a lot more discipline among the players when killing a penalty!Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13398608560789318125noreply@blogger.com